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2018 National PV era is coming soon!

Sources:本站 | Release date: 2018-01-18 | Browsing volume:
Key words:2018 National PV era is coming soon!

New Opportunities in Photovoltaic Industry - Distributed Photovoltaic Generation
In the past few years, centralized ground-based photovoltaic power plants have brought about impressive installation demand and market position for domestic photovoltaic power generation. In 2015, China's newly installed grid-connected solar photovoltaic power generation capacity reached 15.13 GW, accounting for approximately 30% of the global new installed capacity. The cumulative grid-connected capacity reached 43.18 GW, surpassing Germany for the first time to become the world's largest PV installation. Among them, the ground photovoltaic power station is 37.12GW, and the distributed photovoltaic power station is 6.06GW. In 2016, the country’s newly installed capacity was 34.54 GW, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 77.42 GW. Among them, the newly installed capacity of centralized ground-based photovoltaic power station was 30.31 GW, and the newly installed installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation was 4.23 GW. From the above data, the share of distributed PV generation in newly installed capacity in 2015 and 2016 is still small. On the other hand, centralized ground-based photovoltaic power plants have exposed many problems through several years of rapid development and transitional development. First of all, problems such as abandoned light, electricity restriction, subsidies, and financing have not yet been solved, and new issues such as quality and land have come one after another. After several years of major development, centralized photovoltaic power plants have entered a bottleneck period, and distributed photovoltaics have ushered in new opportunities for development.
Distributed photovoltaic power generation is close to the user's side, which can improve the utilization of solar energy in large power consumption areas. The form of self-use power grid access is in line with the distributed nature of solar energy. Therefore, distributed photovoltaic power generation is also the development and promotion of photovoltaic power generation industry. The inevitable trend. In order to promote the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, in the newly issued “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, the installed capacity of the photovoltaic market was clearly planned, and the development focus was clearly shifted to distributed photovoltaic power generation. Among the planned 105 GW installed capacity, The target of a distributed photovoltaic power station is 60 GW, and the target of a centralized ground power station is 45 GW, accounting for more than half. At the same time, the National Energy Administration proposed in the “13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development” issued in December 2016: Continue to carry out the construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation demonstration areas and build 100 distributed photovoltaic application demonstration areas by 2020. 80% of new building roofs and 50% of existing building roofs are installed with photovoltaic power generation.
In addition, in order to promote distributed photovoltaics, the state and governments at all levels have successively issued corresponding subsidy policies. The majority of the people have been interested in distributed photovoltaic power generation driven by policy subsidies and environmental awareness, and they would like to know that they have invested in construction. It is in the ascendant and in full swing. Large and small photovoltaic companies also entered the field one after another. Eight Immortals crossed the sea and showed their magical powers, seeking to share a piece of cake. In the central and eastern regions of China, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, Anhui Province, and Shandong Province have become large-scale and rapid-growing areas for distributed photovoltaic power generation. Photovoltaic projects have shifted from the more resource-rich northwest region to central and eastern China, indicating that the power grid has been eliminated. The policy environment has become a more important factor affecting investment decisions. In other words, the greater the scale of electricity demand, the greater the power supply gap. The higher the industrial and commercial electricity price, the richer the solar energy resources, the more powerful the solar energy industry base, and the distributed photovoltaic power generation. The greater the demand for the project. According to the above rules, the division of China's distributed photovoltaic power generation market is shown in Table 1-4.

Table 1-4 Division of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Market in China
Market order
Regional Characteristics
Major provinces
the first
Development area
The lack of solar energy resources, but the power consumption, power supply gap, industrial and commercial electricity prices, industrial strength
Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hebei
second
Development area
The solar energy resources and industrial infrastructure are common, but the electricity supply gap is large and the commercial and commercial electricity prices are high.
Henan, Shanghai, Liaoning, Beijing, Fujian, Jiangxi
third
Development area
Rich solar energy resources, small power demand, weak industrial strength
Sichuan, Hunan, Chongqing, Tianjin, Hubei, Guangxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Gansu, Shaanxi, Anhui, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shanxi, Hainan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Guizhou

It can be predicted that in the next 3 to 5 years, China's distributed photovoltaic market, especially the residential household photovoltaic market, will surely continue to show a state of eruption. In 2017, it will be called the first year of residents' distributed outbreak in the industry. In terms of the entire scale of photovoltaic development, there are still large gaps between the provinces across the country and the 13th Five-Year Plan. The future market development will show a straight-up trend.
In foreign countries, distributed photovoltaics account for a large proportion of the entire photovoltaic energy source and are widely used. According to relevant data, the world’s 230GW photovoltaic power generation project by the end of 2015 has a distributed share of 54%, with major application countries such as In Germany, Japan, and the United States, distributed photovoltaics accounted for 74%, 86%, and 42% respectively, while China's distributed photovoltaics accounted for only about 10%, far below the international average. Therefore, from the perspective of planning and objectives, the gap in distributed photovoltaic installations is still large, and its development space is self-evident. It is expected that distributed photovoltaic power generation will become a new round of growth for the photovoltaic industry from 2017 to 2020. In the first half of 2017 alone, the newly installed capacity was 24.4GW, of which distributed photovoltaic installed capacity was 7.11GW, which is expected to be for the whole year. Completed more than 10GW.

The Status Quo and Challenges of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation
The development process of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China is basically divided into three stages: scale, marketization, and commercialization. The scale demonstration stage is about 2013 to 2015, and the second half of 2015 is currently basically the stage of marketization. The application scope of distributed photovoltaic power generation has been extended to institutions, schools, hospitals, rural areas, and families. The cost of photovoltaic power generation has continued to decline at this stage. The project approval procedures have been gradually simplified, government subsidies have been gradually reduced, and they have gradually transitioned to the user side. Cheap internet access. The third stage is the stage of commercialization. Distributed photovoltaic power generation will enter the stage where government subsidies are not needed and market mechanisms are developed.
The development of distributed photovoltaics is the coexistence of opportunities and challenges, and many problems currently faced, such as roofs, funds, high-quality products and services, and power grid transformation, have constrained the development of distributed photovoltaics.

1, the roof problem
The difficulty in finding high-quality roofs is a major issue in the promotion of distributed photovoltaics. According to the “13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development”, to achieve the goal of more than 60GW of distributed photovoltaics by 2020, an average of 110 million square meters of photovoltaic power plants will be built on the roof every year. However, the forms of houses in our country are diverse. The area, orientation, material, design life, and load directly determine the capacity and service life of rooftop distributed photovoltaic power generation projects. In the project development, for the investors of distributed photovoltaic power plants, the commercial and commercial roofs with large areas and high electricity prices are the best choices for ensuring investment returns. However, the owners have a limited number of roofs with good credit, easy installation, and no safety hazards. For individual users, the roof property rights of urban residential buildings are owned jointly by the owners, the roof area is small, and there are more high-rise buildings and there are shelters. Although the rural roofs have independent property rights, there are mostly bungalows and there are often trees around them. Because the houses are mostly self-built, the load-bearing capacity is uncertain, and there are hidden dangers in roof quality and safety.

2, funding issues
The installation of a distributed photovoltaic power plant often requires a fund to be built first, and then through the photovoltaic power generation sales and policy subsidies, the investment cost will be recovered year by year, and gains will be made. At present, the rural roof is a major source of distributed roofs, but the income of farmers is limited. It is difficult to directly make a large sum of money to make a roof photovoltaic power station. For industrial and commercial roofs, due to the large roof area, the initial investment is not a small number. These initial investments often take six to seven years or even longer to recover, and this creates a situation in which the roof owner's willingness to invest is weak. Although at present more than 70 financial institutions such as local commercial banks have started to implement “PV loan” business, there are still many problems such as guarantees, mortgages, business decentralization, and the long period of user cost recovery and shortened revenue period due to high interest rates.

3, uneven quality of products, after-sales operation and maintenance relative lag
The product quality of distributed photovoltaic power generation system is uneven, and the relative lag of after-sale operation and maintenance reduces the enthusiasm of some owners. Industry Requirement The lifetime of a set of photovoltaic power generation system is 25 years, in which the PV modules are generally guaranteed for 10 years and the inverter is guaranteed for 5 years. Once a photovoltaic system has problems outside the warranty period, it is often the owners who install the photovoltaic power station. Individual users often have no ability to discriminate the quality of the system. Some unscrupulous companies use low-efficiency, downgraded products to spoof users, and some companies do exaggerated their power generation data and earnings in doing distributed promotional campaigns. As a result, the actual PV system revenue and investment recovery cycle are seriously inconsistent with the publicity effect, which has dampened the installation enthusiasm of some ordinary people.
The number of distributed photovoltaic power stations is scattered and the number is large. With the continuous increase in the number of installations, the workload of routine maintenance will also increase. Some stations may only conduct inspections for six months or longer. At the same time, the fault location of distributed photovoltaic power plants is relatively difficult, and the timeliness of after-sales response and troubleshooting is also difficult to guarantee. In particular, many photovoltaic companies are mainly engaged in the business and installation of distributed photovoltaic power plants, neglecting after-sales management and spreading the use and maintenance of users' basic knowledge. After the installation and operation of power plants, users often ask questions that are not a problem. Repairing some faults that are not faults has virtually increased the workload of after-sales operations.

4. Grid security and transformation brought about by large-scale grid connection
The rapid development of distributed photovoltaic power generation poses many problems for large-scale grid-connected networks: increasing the investment in transformation of distribution networks, reducing the overall utilization rate of distribution networks, increasing the uncertainty of distribution network planning, and radiating the distribution network from a single power source. The type of network has become a two-way trend type network, and it is more difficult to predict the load of the distribution network. After the distributed power supply is connected, the distribution network becomes a dual power supply or a multi-power supply structure. The impact on the relay protection of the distribution network is that the magnitude, duration, and direction of the fault current will change, easily causing over-current. Protection and mistakes. In addition, the existing load growth mode, power supply and peaking, and power supply safety management modes of the power grid have also been changed, making the transformation and management of distribution networks more complicated. Because the current power grid and supporting facilities cannot adapt to the needs of distributed photovoltaic grid-connected networks, in order to ensure the safety of power grids, local power supply departments must provide all kinds of constraints and regulate users. This also brings complicated procedures for grid-connected procedures, long grid-connected time, etc. phenomenon.
Rural areas are the major markets for distributed photovoltaic power generation in the future. However, rural power grids have poor foundations, and the load capacity of power grids is generally relatively low. In particular, the power grids in impoverished areas have a lower load, and the capacity of transformers in rural areas is about 200 to 300 KW. It is 100KW. Enlarging rural power grid reconstruction is a prerequisite for the promotion and implementation of distributed photovoltaic power generation in rural areas.

5. Demonstration, cooperation and innovation are the best ways to promote the development of distributed photovoltaics
Distributed photovoltaic (PV) is the core technology that combines the energy grid and the Internet as described in the “Third Industrial Revolution”. The development of distributed photovoltaics is an important feature of a new round of energy revolution and a global trend. The promotion of distributed photovoltaics not only conforms to the development laws of the photovoltaic industry and photovoltaic market, but also conforms to China's national conditions and national policies. The promotion of distributed photovoltaics can effectively implement existing policies and adopt “government guidance, corporate voluntary, financial support, and social participation” to introduce demonstration mechanisms in public parks, large-scale enterprises, school hospitals and other public buildings with development conditions. , unified planning and organization and implementation. In rural areas and small cities and towns with good solar energy resources and good conditions for access to power grids, we will plan and promote rooftop photovoltaic projects in a unified way in combination with new urbanization construction, transformation of old towns, and construction of new residential buildings for new rural residents to form a number of photovoltaic townships. Photovoltaic New Village, through promotion and demonstration, enables consumers to gradually realize and experience the practicality, economy and advancement of distributed photovoltaics. At the same time, the government must further standardize the project registration, integration, and subsidy distribution procedures, strengthen the supervision mechanism, and improve management procedures in order to ensure the continued stability of project revenues and eliminate unnecessary risk of policy implementation.
For financial institutions such as banks, they do not know much about distributed photovoltaics, and they lack understanding and information asymmetry. Photovoltaic companies can work with financial institutions to develop more flexible and diverse financial products based on the characteristics and actual conditions of distributed photovoltaics. Provide more convenient financing channels for the promotion of distributed photovoltaics, establish risk-sharing mechanisms, attract insurance agency interventions, create conditions for the establishment of new distributed photovoltaic project financing mechanisms such as property rights trading of photovoltaic power plants, and promote the development of distributed photovoltaic project assets. Securitization.
While photovoltaic companies are developing distributed business models and improving the professionalization level of their employees, they must also deepen their internal skills, improve their optimization, and continuously improve the quality and efficiency of photovoltaic systems so that consumers can earn economic benefits from the use of photovoltaic power generation systems. And environmental benefits.
While vigorously promoting the development of the photovoltaic industry, the state will continue to focus on roof conditions, grid conditions, lightning protection grounding, water and arc protection, data acquisition and data transmission, wind resistance design, project acceptance, operation and maintenance, and installation appearance requirements. Formulate relevant project access and technical standards to regulate the orderly and healthy development of the photovoltaic market. In the future, the competition in the distributed photovoltaic market will become more intense. Some small integrators and small manufacturers will face the risk of being eliminated.

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