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2018 distributed photovoltaic market continues to be hot!

Sources:本站 | Release date: 2018-01-11 | Browsing volume:
Key words:2018 distributed photovoltaic market continues to be hot!

According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration, as of the end of November 2017, China’s cumulative installed PV capacity reached 125.79 GW, an increase of 67% year-on-year; distributed photovoltaic installed capacity reached 17.23GW, which was 3.7 times the new scale of the same period of 2016 The growth rate increased by 3 times year-on-year.
According to the data provided by the State Grid, the total number of installed rooftop photovoltaics at the end of last year was 200,000. In June this year, it exceeded 400,000 households. In fact, the growth rate of photovoltaics for civil buildings may be even more pronounced in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of this year, there were five provinces with distributed photovoltaics exceeding 1 million kilowatts, accounting for 63%, and the top ten provinces accounted for 87%. The top ten provinces were Shandong, Anhui, Zhejiang, and Hebei respectively. , Henan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, and Jilin, distributed in the region, distributed photovoltaics can be said to be both extensive and highly concentrated.
Taking Shandong as an example: As of the end of 2017, Shandong Power Grid handled a total of 115,228 distributed networks.
2017 China's distributed photovoltaic can achieve such eye-catching results, can not be separated from the strong support of a series of favorable policies!

(1) On October 31, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Circular on Launching the Pilot Project of Distributed Power Generation Marketization."
The issuance of the "Notice" allowed distributed generation to directly exchange electricity with users from the past "full access to the Internet" and "for individual users to use their own power to access the Internet," or to entrust power companies to sell electricity, so that they could have partial sales. Electricity income transferred to distributed generation project units
(2) On November 8, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Opinions on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of the Price Mechanism."
The “Opinions” proposes to improve the renewable energy price mechanism, implement the on-grid tariff retreat mechanism for wind power, photovoltaic, and other new energy benchmarks according to technological progress and market supply and demand, and realize similar on-grid tariffs for wind power and coal-fired power generation in 2020, as well as the on-grid PV tariff and grid The sale price is quite the same, which will lay the foundation for opening a new and distributed situation of industry and commerce. In addition, the pilot project of distributed new energy sources will be carried out in the near future. Through market-based bidding, the price of new energy power generation will be determined, and the price mechanism will be better refined so as to reduce the need for new subsidy funds and promote the healthy and orderly development of the entire new energy industry chain.
(3) On December 22, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on the Price Policy of Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2018"
The "Notice" draws several information points. First, the distributed photovoltaic power generation project that was put into operation after January 1st, 2018, adopting the mode of “self-occupation, excess capacity and access to the Internet” reduced the full power subsidy standard by 0.05 yuan, that is, the subsidy standard was adjusted to 0.37 per kilowatt-hour. Yuan (including tax), which is more optimistic than the previous industry's generally guessed subsidy reduced to 0.35, from the side can also reflect that the country still encourages the development of distributed photovoltaic projects; Second, the full amount of on-grid tariff is lowered by 0.1 Yuan, the subsidy of distributed electricity is reduced by 0.05 yuan. It can be seen that the revenue from the “self-occupation” model will increase relatively, further indicating that the country is more inclined to support “spontaneous use” of distributed photovoltaic power generation and local consumption.
Experts predict: Local policies are tilted towards renewable energy
Distributed partition wall power supply is about to form a new model
For the 2018 distributed market, Peng Wei, director of the policy research department of the Renewable Energy Special Committee of the China Recycling Economic Association, made a partial forecast at the Second China Photovoltaic Industry Development and Innovation Application Forum. She believes that under the pressure of the country's implementation of the PV subsidy removal mechanism and the reduction of coal and carbon emissions, local policies will be tilted towards renewable energy; the rapid development of rooftop PV will drive the market demand for high-efficiency components; piloting market-based trading will open up The new model of distributed partition wall power supply is even spread across the country; in the face of increasing opportunities for the development and financing of distributed photovoltaic projects, more non-energy companies will also enter this field across borders.

After the subsidy is lowered, what are the benefits of PV?
People with dry photovoltaics know that photovoltaic systems can convert solar energy into electricity. The electricity produced can not only satisfy the user's own use, but also the remaining electricity can be sold to the country to make money, and enjoy the country's 20-year subsidy, although it is currently down It is 0.37 yuan/degree.

Saved electricity + sales revenue + subsidy income = final income from home photovoltaic power plant
Save on electricity bills: Use your own power to generate electricity, don't have to pay electricity bills, and you're making money.
Subsidy income: State subsidies 0.37 yuan/degree + subsidy + municipal supplement
Revenue from electricity sale: The electricity can be sold to the country for use (the price can be set according to the benchmark price of local coal-fired desulfurization unit 0.56 yuan/degree)

Taking Hunan Province as an example to install a 10-kilowatt family photovoltaic power plant investment income estimate:
Installed capacity: 10 kilowatts (KW)
Area: about 80 square meters
Investment amount: 80,000 -10 million
Grid-connected mode: Spontaneous use, free internet access
Annual power generation of the system: 11000 degrees-13000 degrees
System service life: 25 years (customer self-use total income is more than 360,000 yuan)

Annual self-use revenue of customers:
0.638 yuan/degree (second ladder electricity price) + country compensation 0.37 yuan/degree + province supplement 0.2 yuan/degree + city supplement 0.1 yuan/degree = 1.308 yuan/degree *11000 degree=13011 yuan

50% of the customers' own personal use 50% of the annual revenue from Internet access:
1.308 yuan / degree * 5500 degrees = 7194 yuan + 50% of Internet income (electric power bureau purchase price of 0.447 yuan / degree + national subsidies 0.72 yuan / degree) * 5500 degrees = 6418.5 yuan Total: 13612.5 yuan
Cost recovery: Expected to return this year. (Consider the light intensity and local subsidy in different places, generally return to this in about 6 years)
Annual rate of return: 15%-20% (Recovery value is about 10% of total investment after 25 years)

Conclusion: After six years of returning to China, you can use electricity and make money for free.
Therefore, even if the PV is downgraded, we can earn back the cost of the power plant in the past few years. The remaining 10 years will be net income, or you can lay it down!

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